A new French study has come up with four possible future scenarios for organic cosmetics that may help market players identify key drivers in the sector. The study, Les Marchés du Bio à Horizon 2025, was commissioned by Cosmebio, the French professional organisation for ecological and organic cosmetics, and Organics Cluster, a network of organic producers in France’s Rhône-Alpes region.
Bio émergent is a market similar to today’s and struggling to organise itself. In this scenario, market complexity will limit the development of the organic segment and SMEs will face stiff competition from conventional manufacturers. If this occurs, organics producers will need to provide consumers with greater transparency and traceability.
Bio référent is a scenario where organic products will become a safe haven amid repeated health and environmental crises. In this case, organic operators will successfully unite and organise themselves, with demand driven by citizens willing to pay for good health. An ethical approach to the supply chain will be key to success.
Cosmétique bio financière et libérale is the third scenario, in which companies team up to become more competitive in a difficult economic environment and smaller businesses will be bought up by major groups. In this scenario, players will need to provide more accessible and innovative cosmetics.
Finally, Cosmétique bio suspecte is a scenario with no real differentiation for the sector as more stringent regulations force conventional cosmetics to become more ecological. In this case, consumers might focus on other values, such as local providers, and a winning strategy will involve maintaining a close and trusting relationship with the consumer.
Patricia Mansfield-Devine, Rennes
